micrOdOts.org / ramblings [of the ABsurd]

Axel G Merk. "Social subsidies may make good politics, but all too often bad economics. When Fannie Mae was created in 1938, the seeds were planted for the biggest housing bust the world has ever seen; the going was good while the party lasted for the first 80 years, but ended in the financial crisis of 2008 – the hangover for many still remains. In 2008, many feared the dollar might collapse should Fannie Mae and its smaller cousin Freddie Mac (together here Government Sponsored Entities or GSEs) fail"

Toby Connor. "The move to a lower low on Friday puts the odds squarely in the “one more leg down” camp. I’ve noticed a couple of patterns emerging in the stock market. The first one is the tendency for a market cycle to bottom on an anticipated news event. The last two intermediate cycle lows bottomed on or one day prior to a jobs report."

Fred Cederholm. "I’ve been thinking about lying. Actually I’ve been thinking about untruths, non-truths, Rod Blagojevich, Obama and company, Roger Clemens, Pat Tillman, Horizon Deepwater, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the November Elections. As a kid I was instructed in honesty, in telling the truth, and in being a “good” person. It was all in black and white with no shades of grey. Well, there were the white lies which you said strictly to make someone happy"

Ryan Puplava CMT. "One market indicator that might be off your radar is mutual fund flows. We can get an idea of what the public’s asset allocation looks like by how much cash, equity, or bonds the professional mutual fund manager has in addition to how much money John Q. Public is investing into funds. It’s typically the retail investor and pension fund managers that use mutual funds. So by following fund flows, we can get an idea of where John Q Public is investing. The easy place to find this data is free, at the Investment Company Institute."

Toni Straka. "The world enters the final stage of financial destruction thanks to a one-sided application of John Maynard Keynes' equation because politicians and central bankers did a terrific job in deficit spending since the USA defaulted on its gold obligations in 1971, but never followed Keynes advice to build reserves in surplus years. This is a direct result of a fiat money system that allows to create money at essentially no cost, to quote Fed chair Ben Bernanke from his infamous 2002 spe"

Ron Paul. "Recently there have been some encouraging signs that Congress is finally willing to admit what should have been evident two years ago. Even after a $150 billion bailout, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still bankrupt and should be abolished. Indeed Rep. Barney Frank, a longtime champion of Fannie and Freddie has made a few statements alluding to this and I have signed on to a letter asking him to clarify his remarks and hold hearings on this topic. There seems to be a growing consensus in favor of abolishing Fannie and Freddie. This is the good news."

Captain Hook. "The fear of God – or the perception of power – this is the primary tool of the Fed these days. It’s not credibility anymore, as this has been damaged to the same extent as its balance sheet. This is widely understood as a primary fundamental within the larger scheme of things in that the dollar ($) is the world’s primary reserve currency, where expectations associated with renewed Quantitative Easing (QE) is common place"

Paul Nolte. "It is of little wonder that investors are tossing their hands up in the air when looking at investment performance or economic data, what look’s promising on the surface is fraught with danger below (like the oil spill?). Early week data regarding homes was mixed, as refinancing activity was strong (for those that can!), and industrial production was surprisingly strong. However, that was trumped by initial jobless claims hitting 500,000 this past week "

Chris Vermeulen. "Prices continue to churn as traders and investors try to figure if they want their hard earned dollar in cash or investments. The market is very jittery simply because no one wants to get caught on the wrong side of the market if it makes another 30-40% move, which is why we are seeing money rotate in and out each with very little commitment and follow through. Until a major trend looks to be in place most investors will not me holding many positions over night or through the weekend."

Gordon T Long. "The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure."

Julian Phillips. "What is a ‘Bull’ market? It is a market in an upward price phase of a market with the expectation that it will be followed by a ‘Bear’ or downward phase of a market. This mindset is common to all markets. Sayings like, “everything the at goes up must come down” is pretty standard and taken as part of life itself, but few examine it to see if it is really true. Why should everything that goes up come down?"

Tim W Wood CPA. "In 2005 I used cyclical analysis to identify the top in housing. That topping process was covered in a series of articles posted here in 2005 and into 2006, as the topping process matured and then eventually became obvious to all. Cyclically, housing is now at another important crossroads."

Hans Wagner. "Growth and investment thrives when executives have confidence in the future, when prospects for growth are based on expected outcomes. When fear, uncertainty and doubt dominate, companies tighten their purse strings and hold off on any new hiring and investment. The FUD factor (fear, uncertainty and doubt) leads to a weaker economy."

Steven Bauer. "Brief Intro on the crude oil Sector: For me crude oil is simple one of many of Wall Street’s groupings of securities, this one is in the raw material business of providing Hydrocarbons that are one way or another converted to Energy and a wide assortment of Products. For my purposes in the analytics of crude oil, I also keep a close eye on the Energy ( Oil and Gas ) Sector. As a part of my on going analytics, I track 15 Sectors and about 100 Industry Groups."

John Browne. "Since March 2009, the S&P 500 has surged by nearly 60% and US Treasuries have continued to surge, pushing yields close to all-time lows. This has elicited sighs of relief from professional investors, who see the strength as sure signs of recovery. Yet, these investors are ignoring - willfully or otherwise -- the very thin trading volume upon which this rally is built. Retail investors remain scarred by the '08 collapse and have steered clear of the stock market altogether. Instead, they have parked cash in the Treasury market (hence the low yields)."

Frank Holmes. "There’s growing congestion on one of America’s highways and reports say the problem will only get worse. In just the past few years, America’s technological network—our information superhighway—has gone from hare to tortoise. Dropped calls, Internet outages and surfing at a snail’s pace now seem to be commonplace."

Carl Swenlin. "Looking at a weekly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index we can see that it entered a steep correction off the June top when it encountered long-term resistance from a declining tops line reaching back to 2006. During the correction a rising trend line drawn from the December 2009 low was violated, and it seemed likely that the index would decline all the way back to the long-term rising trend line drawn across the 2008 and 2009 lows. That may still happen, but currently a snapback rally has begun."

Christopher Quigley. "Traders and investors please be aware that the “Flash Crash” of May 6th. was not an isolated incident. I attach two recent examples of similar “events”. The forces that worked in May last are still alive and functioning, however, rather than directing their forces market-wise, they are now targeting specific stocks with very profitable consequences."

JR Nyquist. "There is a letter by Marcus Tullius Cicero, dated 18 December 50 B.C. This letter was written to his friend Atticus on the eve of the Roman Civil War. He wrote as follows: "The political situation alarms me deeply, and so far I have found scarcely anybody who is not for giving Caesar what he demands rather than fighting it out." To explain the situation in brief, G. Julius Caesar had demanded the right to circumvent the Roman constitution, to break laws with impunity, to extend his command over a large army by using that army to threaten the Senate of Rome. "

Sy Harding. "Economic recovery means consumers are convinced the worst is over, are becoming more confident and beginning to spend. It means businesses are selling more products, exporting more product, spending on anticipated growth, and hiring again. It means homes are selling at an encouraging pace, construction is picking up, unemployment is declining. It means investors are returning to the stock market."